Entries from December 2008 ↓

Where are the US bullet trains?

As I write this, I’m sitting in Newark airport, waiting for our airplane to emerge from its holding pattern and land so that we can board and get on our way. We’re already 5 hours delayed (might be a new record for me), and high speed train its Christmas Eve, so at this point, I’m just glad there is some end in sight to the waiting.

As I’m sitting here, I’m thinking about my other options to Chicago if the flight were to be cancelled. Flight-wise, there isn’t much. A bus takes about 18 hours, so thats not really feasible. A train isn’t much better — it takes around 12 or so when you factor in all the stops. So really, its fly or nothing.

In Japan and parts of Europe, people have another viable option for quick and efficient medium-distance travel. The high-speed trains in these areas can travel 300km/hr (186mph), which would get me from NY to Chicago in under 4 hours. A flight is 2.5 hours in the air plus another 2 hours or so of security and delays, so 4 hours by train certainly gives air travel a run for its money. There are other advantages too — a train can take far more people at at time, so on really high-traffic routes (like NYC to Chicago), plenty of seats are available and they can [conceivably] be sold for a lower price. Weather isn’t nearly as much of a concern, and congestion during crowded times can be solved by simply adding more cars to the train, instead of trying to pack more planes into a finite amount of runway and airspace.

Energy efficiency is a huge upside as well. When oil was above $140/barrel, the airlines couldn’t raise fairs and cut costs enough to make money. Trains don’t have nearly the same voracious energy demands — to put it in perspective, a freight train move 1 ton of cargo 423 miles on 1 gallon of diesel fuel. Admittedly, there is a definite difference between a diesel freight train and a electric magnelev train, but the scope is similar. A story on inhabitant.com (linked below) says that these trains use 1/3 of the energy of planes and 1/5 of the energy of cars. The greenhouse gases that a network of trains would save is huge, and the benefits would go beyond just environmental.

Obviously the main concern with building such a system is the huge cost of creating such an infrastructure. The solution? Start small. California recently approved 800 miles of high-speed rail that will connect every major city in the state. How about a similar system for the east coast? Connect very high-traffic routes between DC, NY and Boston. These routes are heavily trafficked by business travelers, and airline routes such as the Delta Shuttle between New York and Boston are consistently among the most profitable routes in the industry. Replacing a 1hr plane ride subject to delays and security hassles with a 1.5 hour train ride that is essentially “hop on, hop off” will certainly be attractive to many or most of these travelers. Once these routes are established and profitable, build out capacity to other cities.

Air travel ultimately is an inefficient means of transportation for short distances. Allowing a plane to use an airport slot for a 500 mile trip is a very poor use of resources, and certainly something that could be improved upon. As the government looks for the best possible ways to productively spend money to stimulate the economy, rail improvements should be near the top of the list.

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Pretty cool — Time Warner ‘Enhanced TV’

As the saying goes, there is certainly no love lost between Time Warner and me. For starters, their internet service to my apartment in New York tends to be extremely slow, especially at peak times. The TV, while more reliable than the internet, also cuts out from time to time, and definitely isn’t as good as offerings from Verizon FIOS or even some of the stuff I’ve seen Comcast do.

However, I was watching today, and when I clicked on a channel to watch a movie already started (Click! with Adam Sandler…so/so), I was presented with this option:

I clicked it, and sure enough, the movie started over! Pretty cool. It was a on FX, so I figured that it was just some gimmick that FX had going.

Later that night, I flipped on House on TNT. Same message! Seems like a bunch of channels are participating.

The ‘Enhanced TV’ features allow you to start from the beginning, pause or rewind the shows (no fast-forward, however, presumably to prevent you from skipping commercials). I checked out the Time Warner Enhanced TV site and it seems like there is a whole slew of features available in certain markets:

Start Over – Missed the start of your favorite show? With Start Over™, you’ve got the power to restart and watch it from the beginning. Over 60 popular TV channels currently offer Start Over™ and it’s free with digital cable service.
Quick Clips – Watch video clips of your favorite shows and news programs whenever you like with Quick Clips. New content is added every day and it’s free with digital cable service.
Look Back – Ever wish you could go back in time and catch a show you missed? Now you can. Look Back lets you watch shows you missed, as many as 48 hours after the program originally aired.
PhotoshowTV – PhotoShowTV is a new, easy, and FREE way to share your digital pictures and videos with friends and family, right through your computer and TV! It’s free when you subscribe.

Not bad. Seems like Start Over is the only feature available for me right now, but I’m particularly intrigued by the PhotoshowTV option. If they do it right (a big if — pictures are hard, since everyone already has their favorite backup and picture services, and its a pain to switch), it would be pretty neat to be able to pull up your pictures on your TV to show. Those photos from Costa Rica probably look a lot better on a 52″ plasma than on your smaller computer monitor in the den.

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The future? [de]convergence

In the next decade, convergence will give way to deconvergence. Devices that “do it all” will become less important, losing mindshare to smaller, cheaper, simpler devices that do one or two things very well.

Click to continue reading “The future? [de]convergence”

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Talking Linux RSS Alarm Clock

I don’t like to get up early. Therefore, I stay in bed as late as possible and, as a result, never really set aside any time to check the news or even the weather before I head out the door. Although it would only take me an extra 3 minutes or so to read though stories or lookup the weather, the thought of turning on my monitor, entering my password, and going to the appropriate sites isn’t terribly attractive for me at 5:30 in the morning.

Combine the above with a general distaste for the jarring sound that my alarm alarmclock
makes got me thinking that there had to be a better way to get my morning started. I searched a bit to find MP3 alarm clocks (of which there are many) and initially used KAlarm which served the purpose of waking me up with music quite adequately.

However, I work in the financial industry, where overnight news is advantageous to hear before getting to work. The markets might be up or down by large amounts (especially these days) based on what happened overnight, so at least figuring out what is going on before getting into the office is pretty helpful. This, combined with a day where I got stuck in the rain because I hadn’t checked the weather, got me thinking — how about an alarm clock that read news and weather from an RSS feed in addition to waking me up with a song.

Here’s how I created it:

Basics:
- Python with urllib, ElementTree, and re installed
- cron
- mplayer (available on portage and apt)
- [optional] A playlist of MP3s or other songs that mplayer can play
- festival — a text-to-speech program (available on portage for gentoo and probably on apt too)

Steps

1) Install the necessary software. Emerge or apt-get mplayer and festival. Install ElementTree for python by following the instructions here. The other packages, urllib and re were already installed on my python, but if thats not the case for you, a bit of Googling can help out here.

2) Pick one song at random from your playlist. The way I chose to do this was to use a quick bash line to pick a a random line from the playlist file (playlist.m3u), and then create a new playlist with only the one song (single_song.m3u). Another thought is to just start mplayer and play a random song directly from the big playlist, but this means that the music will keep playing until you kill mplayer. I wanted to have one song play and then have my news and weather start to be read, so I play only the one song from the small playlist.

#alarm.sh -- pulls together elements of alarm clock
#Written by ajlisy, 2008
# This program is free software; you can redistribute it and/or modify
# it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by
# the Free Software Foundation; either version 2 of the License, or
# (at your option) any later version.

#Create file with single song
nlines=`cat playlist.m3u | wc -l`
random_line=`expr $RANDOM % $nlines + 1`
sed -n $random_line,${random_line}p playlist.m3u > single_song.m3u

#Play that song
mplayer -playlist single_song.m3u

#  <...>

3) Set up the basic scripts for fetching and parsing the weather from the Yahoo! RSS feeds. The idea is that 2 simple python scripts, get _weather.py and get_news.py are called from the main bash script to populate the “script” files that are read by festival.

#get_news.py -- fetches headlines from RSS feed
#Written by ajlisy 2008
# This program is free software; you can redistribute it and/or modify
# it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by
# the Free Software Foundation; either version 2 of the License, or
# (at your option) any later version.

import urllib
import re
from elementtree.ElementTree import parse

def get_headlines(news_source,num_headlines):
  news_rss_feed=parse(urllib.urlopen(news_source)).getroot()
  raw_headlines=news_rss_feed.findall('channel/item')
  headlines=[]
  for i in range(0,num_headlines):
     try:
       headlines.append(raw_headlines[i].findtext('title').splitlines()[0])
     except:
       pass
  return headlines

print "Today's top news stories      "
YAHOO_NEWS = 'http://rss.news.yahoo.com/rss/business'
NYT_NEWS='http://www.nytimes.com/services/xml/rss/nyt/Business.xml'

print "Worldwide news from New York Times"
for element in get_headlines(NYT_NEWS,5):
  try:
    print element
  except:
    pass
print "Business news from Yahoo"
for element in get_headlines(YAHOO_NEWS,5):
  try:
    print element
  except:
    pass
#get_weather.py -- adapted from the tutorial on the Yahoo
#  developers page found at
#  http://developer.yahoo.com/python/python-xml.html

import urllib
from elementtree.ElementTree import parse

WEATHER_URL = 'http://xml.weather.yahoo.com/forecastrss?p=%s'
WEATHER_NS = 'http://xml.weather.yahoo.com/ns/rss/1.0'

def weather_for_zip(zip_code):
  url = WEATHER_URL % zip_code
  rss = parse(urllib.urlopen(url)).getroot()
  forecasts = []
  for element in rss.findall('channel/item/{%s}forecast' % WEATHER_NS):
    forecasts.append({
        'date': element.get('date'),
        'low': element.get('low'),
        'high': element.get('high'),
        'condition': element.get('text')
       })
    ycondition = rss.find('channel/item/{%s}condition' % WEATHER_NS)
    return {
        'current_condition': ycondition.get('text'),
        'current_temp': ycondition.get('temp'),
        'forecasts': forecasts,
        'title': rss.findtext('channel/title')
    }

weather=weather_for_zip(10038)
print "The current weather conditions are "+weather['current_condition']+" with a temperature of "+ weather['current_temp'] + " degrees."
print "Today's forecast is " + weather['forecasts'][0]['condition'] + " with a high of " + weather['forecasts'][0]['high'] + " degrees and a low of "+weather['forecasts'][0]['low'] + " degrees"

4) Link it all together with the alarm.sh script that calls the individual “subroutines” mentioned above and assembles them into the alarm.

#alarm.sh

#Create file with single song
nlines=`cat playlist.m3u | wc -l`
random_line=`expr $RANDOM % $nlines + 1`
sed -n $random_line,${random_line}p playlist.m3u > single_song.m3u

#Play that song
mplayer -playlist single_song.m3u

#Create file to read
python get_weather.py > weather.txt
python get_news.py > news.txt

festival --tts weather.txt
festival --tts news.txt

Add the resulting script to your crontab for whenever you want to get up, and enjoy a better start to the day.

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Out with the old, in with the new

The following companies will be gone or significantly diminished in influence in the next 5 years:

  1. XM/Sirius
  2. Blockbuster
  3. Microsoft

Lets go down the list and discuss why each of these is marked for death.

XM/Sirius
First on the chopping block is satellite radio. But wait, you say…GM is including satellite radio in all its cars! I know, I know…with GM’s market power (they probably should be on this list as well, but I suppose the optimist in me will hold off for now) it seems like satellite radio is bound to replace traditional terrestrial radio. It will…but then the good-old radio-from-towers-on-the-ground model will spring right back up, and knock the satellites right out of orbit [I couldn't resist the pun]

It won’t be AM/FM this time though…the thing that will kill XM/Sirius is ubiquitous broadband internet. XM/Sirius has maybe 200 channels tops, and to a given listener, 90% of those channels are garbage. Honestly, although it makes great advertising to be able to say you have a station devoted to Aborigine tribal music, I’m never going to listen to it on my way home. Thats the case for most of the junk on right now.

Broadband to your car brings internet radio to your car. Already I can get Pandora on my phone, which gives me a personalized station based on a few recommendations I make. Imagine if you can just go on the internet at home, make a few recommendations, drag and drop a few stations into the bucket, and have 50 stations that you actually like on your dial instead of 190 that you have to scroll through to get to the 10 you care about? Want to learn spanish? Stream a learn spanish podcast right to your car. Want to hear classic jazz? Add that station to your car. Don’t like the current song? Hit ‘next’ on your receiver to skip the song as well as send a downvote to the server so you don’t hear songs like that again. Those that take the time to create a sweet deck of channels could then share that deck with others, so that if you don’t want to spend the time mixing and matching your own music, you could find someone that has already created a set of stations that looks appealing and just use theirs. Maybe some arrangement could even be made to share ad revenue with the most popular of the virtual DJs.

Blockbuster
The idea of going to a video store is rapidly becoming as antiquated as going to a CD store like Virgin or Sam Goody to buy music. The advantage, in theory, to a place like Blockbuster over Netflix is the ability to browse a physical selection and have the ability to explore the titles and potentially come across something that looks interesting that you didn’t think of. In theory that is. I was at Blockbuster today — we made one trip around the store, didn’t see anything we liked, and asked for a list of most-popular movies. Once you go down this road, the “physical selection” argument is all but gone — if you’re reading down a list at the counter anyways, why not just see a list online, which is probably personalized for you anyways? I whipped out the iPhone as we were reading this, and found a great list on Amazon — The 25 Best Movies Ever Made which was particularly good because its focused on a lot of newer movies instead of the oldies like Casablanca which are great in theory but in reality not something that I’d likely watch.

Anyways, back to what is really going to kill Blockbuster — streaming Netflix. Just recently, Netflix and TiVo added the ability to stream to set-top devices like the Roku Netflix Player and the TiVo. Combine this with movie rentals on iTunes Store, and you have a lethal combination that all-but-eliminates Blockbuster from the equation. Why go to the store when you can get personalized recommendations right from your browser, download them or stream them over your high-speed connection, and watch them right in your living room?

DVDs are going the way of CDs. Blockbuster is going under, and Netflix is the one pushing them there (as they have been doing since the start, when all they were was a DVD-by-mail company).

Microsoft
Vista was a flop. Can Microsoft survive another, especially with Apple gaining market share and Linux for Mom on the horizon?

I truly believe that the operating system is becoming irrelevant, especially as a revenue model. There was a time (circa early 2000s) when I considered myself a devoted Windows user. That was all I knew, and thats where all of the cool apps were. When computers were first getting mainstream, a good knowledge of how to use Windows was essential, since Windows was the basic springboard for all of your applications, so anything you wanted to do began with figuring out how to make Windows do it.

Fast forward to 2008… at this point, I don’t have a primary operating system. A favorite? Of course — I love Linux because I like to tinker and I like the flexibility that it provides me. Right now I’m sitting at home writing this post from a Windows laptop, but it could just as easily be the Macbook sitting in the bag in the next room. I’m a computer geek…but heres the kicker — although I’m equally comfortable with any of the 3 major OSes, so is the most inexperienced user out there. Why? Open up Firefox on Linux, OSX or Windows, and its the same. Gmail is there, as are their websites. So whats the difference if there is a start bar, a dock, or anything else.

This key theme is what will eventually drive Microsoft out of business. Why pay $200 for an operating system on your new PC when you can just get a basic box that runs Firefox for $200 total? What does it matter what the icon is when you first press the button? The reason I suspect that most people never got around to upgrading to Vista is that XP was working just fine in the internet department. Windows 98 was instable and crashed frequently, so XP solved that problem. But people don’t “use” the OS anymore, they use the browser. With a stable platform to run a stable browser, what impetus is there to get the latest and greatest operating system?

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Linux for mom?

A Linux “set-top box” would turn that old computer in the den into a lean internet browsing machine that was never more than a boot away from like-new performance.

Click to continue reading “Linux for mom?”

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